What if?

A while ago on Anthony Wells's excellent site the discussion had turned to the day's viewing. It was a Bank Holiday Monday and the BBC's coverage of Election Night 1992 was being broadcast. One contributor recalled his immense disappointment in waking up to another Conservative government, having gone to bed expecting to wake up with Labour (or much more likely a Lib-Lab pact). It got me thinking - just what would have happened in the 1992 parliament, had the exit polls been correct and the Tories been 30 or so seats short of an overall majority?

The nation wakes to the news that Britain has a hung parliament. Paddy Ashdown has announced that the Liberal Democrats will not go into coalition with the Conservatives and John Major's talks with the UUP and DUP, although positive, still leave him too far short of being able to command an overall majority. This leaves the rest. "Bought" with a guarantee of a referendum on devolution, the SNP and Plaid Cymru agree to endorse Kinnock as PM, with Ashdown as his deputy. Talks will take place on some form of PR being implemented, initially in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly (if passed by referendum) and possibly at local government level in trial areas

Buoyed by their success, the coalition enjoy some successes in the Local Elections, both parties making a handful of further gains from the Tories (despite defending a low base from the corresponding poll in 1988). The summer passes quietly before the first major test for Chancellor John Smith arrives in the autumn, an attack on sterling's position in the ERM. The pro-European Tory leader, Michael Hesseltine, sits quietly on the sideline as the government panics over the best way to handle the evolving crisis. Foreign reserves are sold and interest rates spiral in a desperate attempt to keep the pound's value. They fail and the UK is sent crashing out of the ERM, leaving a huge question mark hanging over the government's declared intent to fully embrace monetary union. A schism grows in the coalition as rival parties blame each other, Shadow Chancellor Ken Clarke enjoys mocking Smith, whose tax rises in the post-election budget begin to bite - hard - as the country struggles with high interest rates and the associated crash in the housing market. The government limps through to May 1993 when County Council elections swing decisively to the Tories. The LibDem base begins to disintegrate while, in the north, areas such as Lancashire are lost to Labour for the first time in decades. The rifts between Labour and the LibDems continue to widen and measure after measure flounders. Kinnock is dealt a personal blow as Wales rejects devolution, though Scotland narrowly backs a Parliament with tax varying powers. Positioning themselves as the sole opposition to the floundering administration, the Tories make gains across Scotland, the "poll tax trial" resentment forgotten in a wave of anti-government sentiment. The SNP picks up seats in Glasgow from disaffected Labour while the Tories demolish the LibDems in Aberdeenshire, South East Scotland and Edinburgh - while recovering ground from the SNP in Angus, Moray, Tayside and Perthshire. They also regain Dumfries, Ayr and Stirling from labour (relative to the 1992 GE). Despite a government in disarray, and a handful of defections to the Tories, Hesseltine shrewdly refuses to call for a vote of no confidence - instead watching the two parties tear themselves apart while reaping the benefits in decisively building up a Local Government base (1994 sees swathes of London turn blue while the Metropolitan areas see Conservatives make gains from both Labour and the LibDems - even picking up a couple of seats in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle). 1995 is catastrophic for the government, electorally, with polls showing the Tories consistently above 60% with the LibDems struggling to clear single figures. The local elections see Labour and the LibDems wiped out in huge parts of rural England and slump in the cities. This continues in 1996, the Tories regaining the ground they lost in the 1992 Locals and the remnants of the coalition drag their way to the poll in 1997 where there is, as expected, a landslide for the Conservatives and Hesseltine is swept into No. 10. The nationalist parties do well in Labour's heartlands while the Liberal Democrats are particularly badly hit, reduced to just 4 MPs (Ashdown, Charles Kennedy, Menzies Campbell and Simon Hughes). Their local base is eroded further as the few remaining County Councillors they held from 1993 (who had yet to defect) saw large swings against them, leaving them with virtually nothing. The new "gang of 4" agree to join Labour and the LibDems are no more as their remaining councillors split - some rejoining the old Liberals, a handful to the Tories and the rest follow their MPs' example and join Labour. And so ends the era of three-party politics. Meanwhile Chancellor Clarke sets about cutting taxes and, with the support of a newly independent Bank of England, gets interest rates under control and the housing market back on track. A steady first term and renewed economic optimism, marred only by a dispute over membership of the euro (sufficient Tory opposition to membership - coupled with lingering nationwide euroscepticism following the ERM débacle leads the pro-european leadership to shelve plans for EMU for now). The 2001 General Election sees a second Tory landslide, Labour make sporadic gains, in part due to UKIP picking up protest votes, while Plaid and the SNP make further inroads at national and devolved level. The Green Party also sees a modest share of the vote though, like UKIP, it is insufficient to bring them parliamentary seats. An ageing Michael Hesseltine quits in the spring of 2003, just as President Bush is planning on war in Iraq. New PM Kenneth Clarke refuses to support the war and sanction the use of British troops, preferring instead to focus on Afghanistan in the aftermath of the post-9/11 invasion. UK/US relations are strained and a number of pro-US (and pro-Iraq war) Tory MPs resign to sit as independents, but Clarke is vindicated as Iraq descends into chaos after the war, while conditions in Afghanistan begin to improve. A third Tory landslide inevitably follows in 2005 and Britain, having vocally supported and signed the EU constitution and seen it narrowly accepted by France and Holland begins to negotiate terms, and an exchange rate, on which to join the Euro, subject to a referendum to be held in the autumn of 2007