Five join the Tory Party

An unexpected turn of events in the constituency of Ealing Southall, where a by-election is due to take place on July 19 following the passing of the Labour MP there. Five Labour councillors have defected en masse to the Conservatives, adding fresh impetus to what is, from local reports, a pretty effective campaign on Tony Lit's behalf. Grant Shapps MP (Con, Welwyn Hatfield) is in charge of the campaign and it sounds like he's doing an excellent job of it. It's an uphill battle for the Tories to even be competitive in a seat like this in a General Election but in a by-election just 12 months after some impressive Local Election results there may just be the possibility on the night of them making it their first by-election gain in 25 years

Sedgefield is probably a bit more of an ask, though Graham Robb is reportedly also putting in a lot of hard work and may well come an encouraging 2nd in the count

Ultimately this night will have far-reaching repercussions for the Brown "honeymoon" - 2 comfortable Labour holds will see him carry the momentum into the summer recess. A narrow hold in either (winning the other easily) could be excused by local factors, especially in Ealing, but may lead to a lot of jittery government back-benchers. If they were to lose one or both seats it would be disastrous for the new PM and could lead to some early questions about his leadership and all but destroy any suggestion of a snap General Election